The Final Four Predictor 5-A

Class 5-A had some real surprises in the regional tournaments this past weekend and the No.3 ranked Mansfield Timberview held form in Region I, with a convincing win over Justin Northwest. Top-ranked Lancaster was upended by Frisco Lonestar, paving the way for Sulphur Springs to capture Region II with a 58-51 win over Lone Star. Manor was the upset machine in the playoffs and came out of Region III with wins over state-ranked, Bryan Rudder, Cedar Park, and Ft. Bend Hightower. San Antonio Wagner was heavily favored in Region IV and dominated by 22 and 53 points.

Timberview will come into the game with a great deal of confidence having run through Region I somewhat easily. The Wolves only single-digit victory in the playoffs came against Little Elm in the second round by six points. Coach Duane Gregory captured the state championship in 2017 with Timberview, and two of this year’s starters played on that team. Five-foot-8 C.J. Smith (18.0) and 6-foot-6 Trazarien White (18.0) were part of the state title run. Coach Gregory sees their leadership as keys to this year’s success. “C.J. has had a tremendous senior year and is our floor leader,” Coach Gregory commented. “White runs the floor well, has a great mid-range shot and can defend multiple positions.”

Timberview is described by their coach as having a high basketball IQ. “The team’s strength is a total commitment to defense and unselfish attitude offensively.” The Wolves like to play a variety of defenses depending on their opponent. “We can press when we need to as well as play half-court defense,” Coach Gregory explained.

Joining Smith and White in the starting lineup for Timberview are 6-foot-0 Marquiss Childs (10.0), 6-foot-2 Tristan Starks (12.0) and 6-foot-4 Rodrigo Soares (8.0). Timberview has consistently ranked among the top three in the state all season with some impressive wins. The Wolves took down some of the top 6-A programs in the state during the season and those wins included Denton Guyer (33-5) by two, North Crowley (33-4) by 10 and Dallas Jesuit (29-6) by two.

Manor came out of nowhere to capture the Region III title. The Mustangs dropped down from 6-A and didn’t make the playoffs last year, finishing 13-19. Coach Anthony Swain is in only his second season in control of the Mustang program and a lot of Manor success this season has to be attributed to junior guard, 6-foot-2 Jamal Shead (19.0). “He does whatever we need to win,” Coach Swain said. “If we need points, he will score, if we need him to distribute, he will, he does whatever the team needs.”

Shead hit 44 points in the second-round victory over Bryan Rudder and 53 earlier in the season against Akins. Shead ability has drawn the attention of several colleges according to Coach Swain. Shead has offers from Houston, A&M, Texas State, SMU, Colorado State, while Michigan State and Texas Tech have shown heavy interest of late.

Shead played his freshman and sophomore seasons at Pflugerville Connally before moving over to Manor. Starters for the Mustangs include 5-foot-7 Augustine Arroyo, 5-foot-11 Quentin Middleton, 6-foot-3 Davion Pearson (10.0) and 6-foot-4 Reginald Brown (7.0/10.0). Coming off the bench is 5-foot-8, Anthony Joiner. “I felt coming into the season we could go a couple of rounds in the playoffs, but this is amazing,” Coach Swain said.

What to look for

Timberview is a battle-tested team and experienced on the big stage. I don’t think you can underestimate their experience. Not only do the Wolves have experience but they are ranked third in the state and had a pretty nice ride through the playoffs. Manor, on the other hand, has played several close games with four of their five playoff wins coming with single digits. Shead will probably be the best player on the court, but Timberview has experience slowing down great scorers. Timberview didn’t shut down R.J. Hampton, but they were able to eliminate Little Elm in the second round 76-70. Timberview should be able to handle the aggressive man pressure by the Mustangs. Coach Swain of Manor commented, “teams with size have given us trouble.”

I look for Manor’s Cinderella story to come to an end. Timberview by 10.

Two of the state’s top ten teams have battled their way into the semi-finals. San Antonio Wagner has a veteran program making their fourth visit to the big dance and Sulphur Springs last visit was in 1927.

Wagner destroyed Region IV with their aggressive pressing style. Coach Rodney Clark has been at Wagner since 2006 and took over the reign’s in 2012. Wagner is another team that dropped down from class 6-A and the Thunderbirds advanced to the state finals under Clark’s direction in 2017, losing to Cypress Falls. The Thunderbirds calling card is full-court pressure and if you can’t handle pressure, they will run you out of the gym. Wagner was in rare form against Corpus Christi Miller in the regional finals winning 98-45. Point guard, 5-foot-11 North Texas signee Jalen Jackson (18.6/7.5/6.6 assists/3.8 steals) is one of the top players in the state and those numbers indicate he can do it all. Jackson’s running mate is 6-foot-2 Journe Phillips (17.9/8.1) and both Phillips and Jackson played at state in 2017.

Coach Clark likes to play about eight players and run a number of different presses during the game. “We try several and whichever is working we stay with,” Clark said. All-State defensive end, 6-foot-3 DeMarcus Hendricks (6.3/7.5/3.1 steals) came out of football and plays strong inside for Wagner. Rounding out the starting line-up for the Thunderbirds are 6-foot-1 Isaiah Kennedy (8.6/2.4), 5-foot-10 Ja’Sean Jackson (9.2/2.6 assist) and 6-foot-0 sophomore, Kaijon Thornton (8.6/2.0). Against Sulphur, Wagner will try to play a 94 feet game and push the tempo. “We have to block out and be basketball players and not rely on our athletic ability,” said Coach Clark.

Sulphur Springs lost some really talented players off last year’s team but recovered to make their way to state. Six-foot-8 Victor Iwuakor left the Wildcats after committing to Oklahoma and is being homeschooled. Two other players also left the program and moved on to Waco Midway. The losses didn’t discourage Coach Clark Cipoletta. He still had two outstanding talents in hand in 6-foot-3 Keaston Willis (22.0) and 6-foot-8 Xavier Cork (12.0). The Wildcats offense pretty much runs through Willis and Cork and Sulphur likes the half court offensive style with his team’s size advantage. Coach Cipoletta conveyed his team can fast break when needed. Other Wildcats playing key roles in their team’s success this year are 6-foot-4 Sadaidriene Hall (16.0), 6-foot-6 Cameron Kahn and 6-foot-2 Jeremiah Roland. Most opposing coaches feel rebounding and controlling the paint are the Wildcats biggest strengths. One opposing coach said, “they hit the offensive boards as hard as anybody we’ve played this year.” Xavier’s ability to alter and block shots is also a valuable asset for the team. Coach Cipoletta said in order for his team to come away with a victory they would need to handle Wagner’s full-court pressure and keep them from penetrating the paint.

What to look for

These two teams play contrasting styles. Wagner will try to force the up-tempo game while Sulphur will try to keep their big’s under the basket and in the game. Whichever team is able to impose their will on the other should come out ahead. Both teams have played challenging schedules and responded well. All things considered, I feel like Wagner experience could be the difference. This should be a fun game to watch and not decided until the last minute. Something to watch for as the game unfolds is how the game is officiated. Will the referees allow Wagner to be physical with their pressing style, or will Sulphur be able to hammer the glass in the half court? This one is a tough one, but I’m leaning towards Wagner by two.